In August 2019 I analyzed token sales statistics with IcoDrops, data includes 469 projects.
- 74 projects were profitable (share 15.8%);
- 304 projects were unprofitable (share 64.8%);
- 91 projects were written off considering that they are trading below 3% of the original price (19.4% share).
If the investor invested in all projects evenly, he would still receive a profit of 360% (the conditional $100 would be increased to $460). There is one very big “BUT” here! This sample captures abnormal returns until summer 2017. If we exclude them, since I started investing in ICO only in August 2017, then the investor already receives a net loss of 29%.
A total of 12 projects are trading above x10, or 2.56% of our sample.
Now let’s research Cryptorank statistics from 2015 till October 2020, data includes 707 projects:
- 136 projects were profitable (share 19.2%);
- 387 projects were unprofitable (share 54.7%);
- 184 projects were written off considering that they are trading below 3% of the original price (26% share).
If the investor invested in all projects evenly, he would still receive a profit of 37% (the conditional $100 would be increased to $137). As we see results are rather similar to IcoDrops data: a lot of negative results and only some positive returns.
A total of 22 projects are trading above x10, or 3.11% of our sample.
Then I decided to analyze my ICO/TGE/IEO results. They are rather better but still for somebody will seem modest. Data includes 61 projects:
- 32 projects were profitable (share 52.5%);
- 15 projects were unprofitable (share 24.6%);
- 14 projects were written off considering that they are trading below 3% of the original price (22.9% share).
Here my positive investments are:
Here my negative investments are:
You can find updated Google Doc here.
I have average ROI = +97%. So if you roll capital about 4 times with such statistics you will have 1.97 x 1.97 x 1.97 x 1.97= 15x from your starting deposit. I have about 10x, because I rolled my capital about 3.5 times.
Graphic about my investments is below:
I tried to model my results with Python (link to Github). With my ROI distribution we can form portfolio in one sprint with 5–10 projects and it will be rather robust. For example if we buy 5 projects and do sprint (I call sprint one roll up, for example we invested in 5 projects — one sprint, the second 5 projects will be second sprint) 20 times then: with around 75% probability one sprint will be closed with profit, with around 99.3% probability 20 sprints one after another will be closed with total profit. If you want to be very confident you should include about 15 projects in your ICO/TGE sprint: so in one time in your portfolio must be 15 projects and if you want to invest in new one then you should sell the old one. With this strategy you will have about 94% probability to close sprint (15 investments) with profit.
If you want to invest in some deals with me please contact Telegram Bot. Sometimes I organize pools in private deals so we can invest in early stages projects together.
Thanks for your attention!